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Sunday, May 04, 2008

3 Bet Sizing Article

The more I play better players, the more I realize that I have to deal with 3-betting. Although I feel that I am much better than my old spewy self, there was more to learn. Specifically, 3-bet sizing.

In the past, I wrote that I learned after a 3-bet, the flop c-bet is allowed to be much smaller and will still garner the same level or respect (1/2 - 2/3 pot). I also learned which players to 3-bet, aggressive players with high fold to cbets or players with close VPIP/PFR numbers.

I have added a few new weapons to my arsenal. First, I now also look at WTSD (went to showdown) numbers if the fold to cbet number is on the fence. But the more important element to my 3bets is sizing it correctly. Before a 3.5 bet would mindlessly get bumped to 11, but now I have two sizes.

75% of the time I will raise it to 10BBs.
25% of the time I will raise it to 13BBs.

Since my stack is at 65BBs even a raise to 10BBs, often is enough not to let loose raisers have the odds to call. But this is a side not, the main reason why I am raising it to 10 is so that the flop will be 20BBs large instead of 22BBs and this will allow for cheaper and stronger looking cbets.

There are 2 types of blind stealers, ones that give up very easily to your 3bet and ones that call your cbets very easily. For the ones that give up easily, betting 10BBs saves you money over the long run. For the ones that call very easily, 10 or 11BBs will be called and both will garner equal preflop respect. These are the types of players that will always defend their PRF but will often give up on the flop.

Betting 14 into 20 is much scarier at my stack size then betting 14 into 22. I have saved a dollar, plus my bet looks more intimidating.

The second 3bet size of 13 is interesting. I made my calculations and find that if you win 3/4 times, you are making a healthy profit. Since a 3.5BB bet is being raised to 13BBs and I only have 65BBs, it looks like a comitting raise. I believe people will only call or raise me with the top 5 percent of poker hands (my guess is its: TT-AA, AK,AKs,AQ,AQs).

So let's do some simple math. If I need to win 3/4 times a person raises and they raise 20 percent or more and they only call with the top 5% of poker hands, I am making money.

Anyone with a steal raise percent of 20 or greater, is a very good target for this move and let me tell you there are tons of people who have 20 or greater steal numbers. Heck, there are tons of people who havea a PFR percent of 20 or greater, let alone steal numbers.

However, if you keep raising to 13 dollars all the time, people are going to catch on that you aren't getting these premium pot committing hands and will call you down or push over you. I will likely only do it 1-2 times per session while mainly sticking to the 10BB raise.

As for when I get called with the 13BB 3bet, I will need to hit the flop to continue as most people aren't calling me too lightly.

posted by joe | permalink | 0 comments


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