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Saturday, March 15, 2008

River Betting

I am getting a whole lot more money doing something I rarely did before. Betting on the river with marginal hands.

Now, understand, that I'm not just doing it when I think I am ahead. If I did this everytime I thought I was ahead, I might get pushed off the winning hand with a reraise or check raise bluff often enough that it would negate all the value I've gained when I get called.

I am ONLY doing the thin value bets on the river when I think I'm ahead AND if they are passive players with AGR numbers below 1.5. I don't want to be check raised or reraised off a better hand. If the passive player does do that, I probably have to fold.

This was the best example I could find today, but it may not illustrate the concept perfectly.

In this hand, 2 people JUST sat out, so it immediately just switched to 4 handed, making my TT a strong hand even though there was a raise UTG.

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players

UTG: $125.50
BTN: $33.50
SB: $100
joethepro (BB): $64

Pre-Flop: dealt to joethepro (BB)
UTG raises to $3, 2 folds, joethepro raises to $10, UTG calls $7

Flop: ($20.50) (2 Players)

joethepro checks, UTG checks

The flop looks good. I was only afraid to see an Ace or a King, but I check for pot control being OOP. I will check call here if he bets and I think if I had bet, he would have folded any lesser hands because of my strong preflop move.

Turn: ($20.50) (2 Players)
joethepro bets $15, UTG calls $15

River: ($50.50) (2 Players)
joethepro bets $15, UTG calls $15

His call on the turn would almost always make me shut down on the river and I used to do check/call here. But a check/call makes no sense. All mid pair hands (with passive players) I beat are going to check this river. If i'm check calling a passive player, I'm leaking A LOT of money. So check fold here is what I would normally do vs passive players (and check call agr players). However, I decide to value bet thinly here. I think the chance that he has a pair from 4 to 9 is MORE likely than him checking a queen on the flop or hitting runner runner trip 7s. But you must ask yourself. If he has this very marginal pair of 4s to 9s, what size bet would he call? I figured he'd call what he called on the turn and bet 15.

PS betting 15 vs someone smart aggressive is asking for trouble. Any thinking player will know you do not have a seven.

Results: $80.50 Pot ($2 Rake)
UTG mucked (two pair, Sevens and Fours) and LOST (-$40 NET)
joethepro showed (two pair, Tens and Sevens) and WON $78.50 (+$38.50 NET)

posted by joe | permalink | 2 comments


At 2:32 PM, Blogger Azn_Cutie said...

Your play also has nice value as a block bet. It is going to be very difficult for him, esp. w/ low RAF, to push you off the hand if he has a busted draw at this point.

At 2:21 PM, Blogger joe said...

yah, i didn't think about that. passive players don't always do it, but there is that chance.


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