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Saturday, March 15, 2008

River Betting Part 2

This next hand illustrates narrowing down Villian's range by street and then sizing a river value bet.

Party Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

joethepro (BTN): $57
SB: $148.76
BB: $97.15
UTG: $19.76
CO: $69.73

Pre-Flop: dealt to joethepro (BTN)

2 folds, joethepro raises to $3.50, SB calls $3, BB folds

Flop: ($8) (2 Players)
SB bets $4, joethepro calls $4

A bet out like this almost always means a very marginal hand or a Monster. Marginal could be top pair bad kicker, mid pair, bot pair. I don't think he is semi bluffing some sort of straight draw because they tend to be larger b/c they want you to fold. I decide to float in position and reevaluate on the turn.

Turn: ($16) (2 Players)

SB checks, joethepro bets $13, SB calls $13

He check calls. Bye to bottom pair. Top pair bad kicker looks like our most likely candidate followed by a much less likely mid pair. After getting check called, I am satisfied enough that he doesn't have trips. Don't need to worry about straights for reasoning mentioned above, plus he did not check raise. The hand I'm afraid of most that fits everything from PF to Flop to Turn is JT. I'm happy with every river card except T,8,9.

River: ($42) (2 Players)

SB checks, joethepro bets $23, SB calls $23

River is a blank. I decide to assume he has 2nd pair (not 3rd pair) and bet what most passive players would call if they had the T. I decide over half the pot.

Results: $88 Pot ($2 Rake)
joethepro showed (a pair of Queens) and WON $86 (+$42.50 NET)
SB mucked (a pair of Eights) and LOST (-$43.50 NET)

posted by joe | permalink | 0 comments


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