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Sunday, January 20, 2008

Capitalizing on luck

Green Plastic said, A good player is someone who miniimizes his losses when he is unlucky and maximizes his winnings when he is lucky.

Villian is 54/15 and has a betting frequency of 40%. I only have about 2 orbits of hands on him. I do have a bit of history with him as he min 3-bet me in position when I had 88 and the flop came 962. I then check raised his pot size bet and he took a long time to fold.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players

Stacks:
UTG
($99.85)
CO
($101.25)
BTN
($88.36)
SB
($192.73)
Hero
($111.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.5, Hero checks

Flop: ($3, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, SB folds

I bet 2/3s the pot with top pair mid kicker.

Turn: ($7, 2 players)
Hero bets $4.6, BTN calls $4.6

I feel more confident about my hand and continue to bet 2/3s pot.

River: ($16.2, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero goes all-in $103.45, BTN goes all-in $68.76

Probably the best possible card in the entire deck. Give me the fullhouse, but finishes the flush, and finishes T9 straight. So it gives a lot of great hands to players who think it's the nuts. The way he was playing and just calling down, I don't put him on the queen (I think probably 1 pair or a monster hand). If I bet here close to pot (14 dollars) he'll call me down with queens, fold all marginal hands, call me down with the straight and reraise me with the flush.

If I check. I could induce bluffs with all those marginal hands that donks like to bluff with if checked to them. I would STILL get a large bet from a queen, straight and flush but then I can reraise this (he has a large betting frequency of 40% and his donkey VPIP will urge him to value bet trips).

After my check raise, it took him his entire timebank but he ended up calling me and I won an extra 70 dollars that I wouldn't have won. If I bet pot he would have simply called me down. So yes, I got lucky on the river, but I capatialized on it. I totally didn't put him on Q9 but the move incorporated the possibility of that and was good if a player of his style (donk) had it.


Final Pot: $200.41
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $198.41 ( won +$87.36 )
BTN lost -$88.36
SB lost -$1.00

posted by joe | permalink | 2 comments

2 Comments:

At 5:48 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

Nice hand. I think you should do an instructional video yourself... maybe add one as a gag in the next video. Teach us how to play free money or something like that. Completely pwn noobs out of their play money. Cant wait for the next video!

 
At 8:40 PM, Blogger joe said...

thanks man.

i am sooo lazy now that i don't know when my next vid will be.

owning ppl in play money would be pretty funny though haha.

 

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