Joe The Pro

Capitalizing on luck

Green Plastic said, A good player is someone who miniimizes his losses when he is unlucky and maximizes his winnings when he is lucky.

Villian is 54/15 and has a betting frequency of 40%. I only have about 2 orbits of hands on him. I do have a bit of history with him as he min 3-bet me in position when I had 88 and the flop came 962. I then check raised his pot size bet and he took a long time to fold.

$0.5/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players

Stacks:

UTG		($99.85)
CO		($101.25)
BTN		($88.36)
SB		($192.73)
Hero		($111.05)

Pre-flop: ($1.5, 5 players) Hero is BB

2 folds, BTN calls $1, SB calls $0.5, Hero checks

Flop: ($3, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, BTN calls $2, SB folds

I bet 2/3s the pot with top pair mid kicker.

Turn: ($7, 2 players)
Hero bets $4.6, BTN calls $4.6

I feel more confident about my hand and continue to bet 2/3s pot.

River: ($16.2, 2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $12, Hero goes all-in $103.45, BTN goes all-in $68.76

Probably the best possible card in the entire deck. Give me the fullhouse, but finishes the flush, and finishes T9 straight. So it gives a lot of great hands to players who think it's the nuts. The way he was playing and just calling down, I don't put him on the queen (I think probably 1 pair or a monster hand). If I bet here close to pot (14 dollars) he'll call me down with queens, fold all marginal hands, call me down with the straight and reraise me with the flush.

If I check. I could induce bluffs with all those marginal hands that donks like to bluff with if checked to them. I would STILL get a large bet from a queen, straight and flush but then I can reraise this (he has a large betting frequency of 40% and his donkey VPIP will urge him to value bet trips).

After my check raise, it took him his entire timebank but he ended up calling me and I won an extra 70 dollars that I wouldn't have won. If I bet pot he would have simply called me down. So yes, I got lucky on the river, but I capatialized on it. I totally didn't put him on Q9 but the move incorporated the possibility of that and was good if a player of his style (donk) had it.


Final Pot: $200.41
BTN shows:
Hero shows:

Hero wins $198.41 ( won +$87.36 )
BTN lost -$88.36
SB lost -$1.00

posted by joe | permalink | 2 comments